每日跟讀#527: Spurning Erdogan’s Vision, Turks Leave in Droves, Draining Money and Talent

17年來，土耳其總統厄多安靠著給選民一個願景而連連勝選，那就是恢復土耳其鄂圖曼帝國時期的光榮。他藉由加強貿易和軍事部署擴大土耳其的影響力，並用多年不間斷的經濟成長提高生活水準。

For 17 years, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won elections by offering voters a vision of restoring the glories of Turkey’s Ottoman past. He extended his country’s influence with increased trade and military deployments, and he raised living standards with years of unbroken economic growth.

但在2016年發生一場未遂政變後，厄多安展開了全面鎮壓。去年土耳其經濟情勢不穩，而且在厄多安贏得連任並獲取更大權力後不久後，土耳其里拉就驟貶。隨著土耳其政府任人唯親和威權的情況更加嚴重，土耳其人開始用不同的方式投票——這次是用腳。

But after a failed 2016 coup, Erdogan embarked on a sweeping crackdown. Last year, the economy wobbled and the lira plunged soon after he won re-election with even greater powers. As cronyism and authoritarianism seep deeper into his administration, Turks are voting differently — this time with their feet.

根據土耳其官方的統計和分析家的說法，他們成群離開土耳其，而且把才能和資金一併帶走，他們離開的方式意味人們對厄多安的願景失去信心，失去信心的現象不但普遍，而且令人擔憂。

They are leaving the country in droves and taking talent and capital with them in a way that indicates a broad and alarming loss of confidence in Erdogan’s vision, according to government statistics and analysts.

過去這兩三年，從土耳其出走的不只是學生和學者，還有企業家、商人和數以千計的有錢人，他們把值錢的東西變賣一空，並把家人和資產送到國外。

In the past two to three years, not only have students and academics fled the country, but also entrepreneurs, businesspeople, and thousands of wealthy individuals who are selling everything and moving their families and money abroad.

土耳其統計局的資料顯示，2017年移民到國外的土耳其人超過25萬人，比2016年的將近17萬8000人成長了42%。

More than a quarter of a million Turks emigrated in 2017, according to the Turkish Institute of Statistics, an increase of 42 percent over 2016, when nearly 178,000 citizens left the country.

倫敦攝政大學跨國研究中心主任史克西等分析家指出，土耳其發生過幾波師生外移潮，不過這波出走潮看來像是更具永久性的社會重新排序，恐怕會使土耳其倒退數十年。

Turkey has seen waves of students and teachers leave before, but this exodus looks like a more permanent reordering of the society and threatens to set Turkey back decades, said Ibrahim Sirkeci, director of transnational studies at Regent’s University in London, and other analysts.

史克西說：「人才外流是千真萬確的。」

“The brain drain is real,” Sirkeci said.

推動人群、才能和資金外逃的是一組強而有力的因素，這些因素決定了厄多安統治下的生活，而且反對厄多安的人對消弭這些因素日益絕望。

The flight of people, talent and capital is being driven by a powerful combination of factors that have come to define life under Erdogan and that his opponents increasingly despair is here to stay.

這些因素包括：對政治迫害的恐懼、恐怖活動、對司法體系和法治的任意性日漸加深的不信任，以及逐漸惡化的經商環境，人們擔憂厄多安破壞性地操縱經濟，好讓他自己和核心圈子得利，這樣的憂慮讓經商環境加速轉壞。

They include fear of political persecution, terrorism, a deepening distrust of the judiciary and the arbitrariness of the rule of law, and a deteriorating business climate, accelerated by worries that Erdogan is unsoundly manipulating the economy to benefit himself and his inner circle.

結果就是，自從土耳其共和國近100年前成立以來，存在已久的富裕階層（特別是主宰土耳其文化與商業生活數十年的世俗菁英）之中，頭一次有許多人遷離土耳其，而由與厄多安及其執政黨親近的新富階層取而代之。

The result is that, for the first time since the republic was founded nearly a century ago, many from the old moneyed class, in particular the secular elite who have dominated Turkey’s cultural and business life for decades, are moving away and the new rich close to Erdogan and his governing party are taking their place.

Source article: https://paper.udn.com/udnpaper/POH0067/336081/web/#top

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