每日跟讀#693: Attacks reveal oil supply fragility in asymmetric war

The latest and most destructive attacks on Saudi oil facilities provide stark evidence of the vulnerability of global crude supply in an age of disruptive technologies that can bring a century-old industry to its knees — at least temporarily.

最近在沙烏地阿拉伯所發生對石油設施最具破壞性的攻擊，赤裸裸顯示出在這顛覆性技術的時代，全球原油供應是如此地不堪一擊，會讓這具百年歷史的產業陷入癱瘓──至少是暫時的癱瘓。

From remote-controlled drones to anti-ship mines and computer worms, hostile parties have employed an unpredictable array of asymmetric weaponry to confound one of the best-equipped militaries in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia blames many of the attacks against its oil assets on Houthi rebels in impoverished Yemen, where Saudi forces have been fighting since 2015 in a civil war that’s spilling across their shared border.

從遙控的無人機，到反艦水雷、電腦蠕蟲，敵方運用多種行蹤飄忽的不對稱武器，讓中東地區裝備最精良的軍隊之一大亂陣腳。沙國指控對該國石油資產的許多攻擊，是葉門這貧困國家的叛軍「青年運動」所為。二○一五年開始的葉門內戰波及兩國邊界，沙國軍隊一直涉入其中。

The use of drones shows that “an air force or even particularly advanced rockets are not necessary to cause widespread economic damage to the kingdom’s center of gravity,” said Milena Rodban, an independent risk consultant based in Washington, D.C. The Saudis accuse Iran of backing the Houthis and supplying them with weapons.

無人機的運用，顯示「要打擊沙國的重心、造成廣大經濟損失，不一定需要空軍，甚或特別先進的火箭」，美國華盛頓特區的獨立風險顧問米雷娜‧羅德班說。沙國指責伊朗支持並提供武器給「青年運動」。

The attacks mark at least the sixth time in four months that Saudi energy facilities or tankers carrying the kingdom’s oil have been targeted. Mine attacks against ships near the Strait of Hormuz and drone strikes on Saudi pipelines in May and June served as warnings of the vulnerability of supplies, even if they didn’t cause significant cuts in shipments. The Sept. 14 attack, by contrast, forced an immediate halt in 5.7 million barrels of daily production.

這次攻擊，已是四個月內至少第六次針對沙國能源設施或運載該國油品之油輪的攻擊。五、六月間，荷莫茲海峽附近有船隻遭水雷襲擊、沙國輸油管被無人機攻擊，即便並未造成油品運量大幅減少，但此警訊已顯示出石油供應的弱點。但九月十四日的攻擊，卻立即造成油品日產量銳減五百七十萬桶。

Cyber attacks, another element of asymmetric warfare, pose a similar risk. Saudi Arabia blamed unidentified people based outside the country for sending a virus that compromised state-run oil producer Saudi Aramco’s computer network in August 2012. Although the virus had no effect on output of crude and refined products, the incident highlighted Aramco’s vulnerability to cyber strikes.

網路攻擊是「非對稱戰爭」的另一門路，也會造成類似的危險。沙國指責境外身份不明者發送電腦病毒，在二○一二年八月破壞了國有石油生產商沙烏地國家石油公司的電腦網路。雖然該病毒並未對原油及煉製油品的產量造成影響，但此事件凸顯出沙烏地國家石油公司易遭受網路攻擊。

The Houthis have previously targeted Saudi pipelines and refineries, in forays over the past year. In other strikes against Aramco facilities, guards repulsed a 2006 al-Qaeda attack on Abqaiq, and bombings at residential towers near Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran on the country’s eastern coast caused deaths and damage.

「青年運動」在過去一年中，曾突襲沙國的輸油管和煉油廠。其他對沙烏地國家石油公司設施的攻擊還包括二○○六年蓋達組織企圖對石油城阿布蓋格發動恐攻，後被警衛擊退；以及國家石油公司在沙國東岸達蘭的總部附近住宅大樓爆炸案，造成了傷亡。

Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack on Sept. 14. The rebels said they launched drones, and the Saudi Press Association reported that drones were involved. Saudi Aramco said “projectiles” hit its facilities.

葉門叛軍「青年運動」宣稱，九月十四日的攻擊是該組織所為。反叛分子稱其發射出無人機，且沙烏地新聞社報導說，該攻擊有無人機涉入。沙烏地國家石油公司也表示，該公司設施被「投擲彈」擊中。

Although US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo directly blamed Iran for the attacks, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi denied the accusation.

雖然美國國務卿麥克‧龐培歐直指此次攻擊是伊朗所為，但伊朗外交部發言人阿巴斯‧墨沙維對該指控加以否認。

“Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure is an attractive target to more than just the Houthis,” Rodban said. “Anyone hoping to sway oil markets, spook investors, and highlight glaring weaknesses in defenses can take advantage of cheap and easy-to-deploy drones.”

羅德班說：「認為沙國石油基礎設施是絕佳攻擊目標的人，不僅是『青年運動』」；「只要有人想動搖石油市場、恫嚇投資者，並凸顯攻擊標的防禦上的明顯弱點，都可以利用便宜且容易部署的無人機。」

Source article: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2019/09/24/2003722783/2