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每日英語跟讀 Ep.K278: 聯準會明年加快緊縮升息三次 Fed will tighten credit faster and sees 3 rate hikes in 2022

· 每日跟讀單元 Daily English

每日英語跟讀 Ep.K278: Fed will tighten credit faster and sees 3 rate hikes in 2022

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will quicken the pace at which it’s pulling back its support for the economy as inflation surges, and it expects to raise interest rates three times next year. In a sharp policy shift, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced Wednesday last week that it will shrink its monthly bond purchases at twice the pace it previously announced, likely ending them altogether in March.

隨著通貨膨脹加劇,美國聯邦準備理事會﹝聯準會﹞將讓刺激經濟之措施加速退場,並預計明年將升息三次。聯準會主席傑洛姆‧鮑爾上週三宣布的政策大轉彎,將大幅縮減每月購債規模,縮減幅度為之前宣布的兩倍,並可能在明年三月完全停止購債。

The accelerated timetable puts the Fed on a path to start raising rates in the first half of next year. The Fed’s new forecast that it will raise its benchmark short-term rate three times next year is up from just one rate hike it had projected in September. The Fed’s key rate, now pinned near zero, influences many consumer and business loans, including for mortgages, credit cards and auto loans.

加快的時程,讓聯準會朝明年上半年開始升息的方向行進。聯準會原本在九月做的預測為明年將升高基準短期利率一次,但現在最新預測為三次。聯準會此關鍵利率影響著許多消費者及商業貸款,包括抵押貸款、信用卡和汽車貸款,此利率現在接近於零。

The shift reflects Powell’s acknowledgement that with inflation pressures rising, the Fed needed to begin tightening credit for consumers and businesses faster than he had thought just a few weeks earlier. The Fed had earlier characterized the inflation spike as mainly a “transitory” problem that would fade as supply bottlenecks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic were resolved.

隨著通膨壓力上升,鮑爾承認聯準會必須更快開始收緊對消費者和企業的信貸,比他幾週前所設想的速度要更快,此即反映在政策之轉變上。聯準會先前表示通膨飆升的問題多為「暫時性」的,會在COVID-19疫情所造成的供應瓶頸解決後逐漸消失。

The run-up in prices has persisted longer than the Fed expected and has spread from goods like food, energy and autos to services like apartment rents, restaurant meals and hotel rooms. It has weighed heavily on consumers, especially lower-income households and particularly for everyday necessities, and negated the higher wages many workers have received.

但物價上漲持續的時間比聯準會預期的還要長,並已從食品、能源和汽車等商品擴及房租、餐廳用餐與旅館住房等服務。它對消費者,尤其是低收入家庭造成了沉重的壓力,特別是在日常必需品的消費方面,並讓許多勞工所得到的更高工資折損了。

He acknowledged the possibility that inflation won’t decline as expected next year. As a result, the Fed is shifting its attention away from reducing unemployment, which has fallen quickly to a healthy 4.2 percent, down from 4.8 percent at its last meeting, and toward reining in higher prices. Consumer prices soared 6.8 percent in November compared with a year earlier, the US government said last week, the fastest pace in nearly four decades.

鮑爾承認明年通膨可能不會像預期的一樣下降。因此,聯準會正將注意力由降低失業率轉移到控制物價上漲(美國的失業率已從上次聯準會決策會議時的百分之四點八,迅速下降至健康的百分之四點二)。美國政府上週表示,十一月份的消費者物價與去年相比,上漲了百分之六點八,上漲速度為近四十年來最快。

The Fed’s policy change does carry risks. Raising borrowing costs too fast could stifle consumer and business spending. That, in turn, would weaken the economy and likely raise unemployment. Yet if the Fed waits too long to raise rates, inflation could surge out of control. It might then have to act aggressively to tighten credit and potentially trigger another recession.

聯準會的政策改變確實存在風險。過快提高借貸成本可能會扼殺消費者與企業的支出,因而削弱經濟,並可能使失業率攀升。但若聯準會遲遲不升息,通貨膨脹便可能失控;然後聯準會也許就不得不採取嚴厲措施緊縮信貸,而這可能又會再引發一場經濟衰退。Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2021/12/21/2003769913

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