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國際時事跟讀VIP Ep. L020: The Strait of Hormuz: A Lifeline for the Global Economy
Highlights 主題摘要
- The Strait of Hormuz serves as a critical chokepoint, controlling approximately twenty percent of global liquid petroleum transport daily.
- Current Israel-Iran tensions threaten to disrupt this vital waterway, potentially triggering widespread economic instability across international markets.
- Experts predict closure could drive oil prices from seventy-four dollars to over one hundred twenty dollars per barrel.
The Strait of Hormuz represents one of the world's most strategically important waterways, positioned between Iran's southern coast and Oman's northern shores. This narrow passage serves as the exclusive shipping route connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, making it indispensable for transporting goods from oil-rich nations including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iran. At its narrowest point, the strait measures merely twenty-one miles wide, with navigable shipping lanes for massive supertankers compressed into just two miles in each direction. Approximately twenty million barrels of oil pass through this geographic bottleneck daily, representing roughly twenty percent of global liquid petroleum consumption according to the Energy Information Administration.
荷姆茲海峽是全球戰略地位最重要的水道之一，位於伊朗南岸和阿曼北岸之間。這條狹窄的通道是連接波斯灣與外海的唯一航運路線，對於運輸來自沙烏地阿拉伯、卡達和伊朗等產油國的貨物至關重要。在最窄處，海峽僅寬21英里，大型超級油輪的可航行航道在每個方向上僅壓縮為2英里。根據美國能源資訊署的資料，每天約有2000萬桶石油通過這個地理瓶頸，約佔全球液體石油消費量的兩成。
Recent escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict has intensified global concerns about potential disruptions to this crucial maritime corridor. Following United States military involvement and subsequent Iranian retaliation attacks on American bases in Qatar and Iraq, Iran's parliament approved a motion to close the Strait of Hormuz, though the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council. Iranian officials have characterized the waterway's closure as retaliation for attacks on their nuclear facilities, while President Trump has repeatedly warned against such actions through social media posts. The presence of an enhanced United States naval fleet in the region serves both as a deterrent and rapid response capability should Iran attempt to implement closure measures.
最近以伊衝突的升級，加劇了全球對這條重要海上走廊可能受到干擾的擔憂。在美國軍事介入以及隨後伊朗對美國在卡達和伊拉克基地進行報復性攻擊後，伊朗國會批准了封鎖荷姆茲海峽的動議，儘管最終決定權在於伊朗最高國家安全委員會。伊朗官員將封鎖航道描述為對其核設施遭受攻擊的報復，而美國總統川普則透過社群媒體多次警告不要採取此類行動。美國在該地區增強的海軍艦隊既能發揮嚇阻作用，也提供了快速反應能力，以防伊朗試圖實施封鎖措施。
Economic experts predict catastrophic consequences should the strait become inaccessible to commercial shipping. Current oil prices of approximately seventy-four dollars per barrel could surge to over one hundred twenty dollars, representing a more than sixty percent increase that would proportionally affect gasoline prices worldwide. Such escalation would drive average American gas prices from their current level of three dollars and twenty-two cents per gallon to over five dollars, while transportation costs for countless other goods would similarly increase. Global accounting firm EY has outlined scenarios involving "significant escalation" that could trigger worldwide recession due to severe supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures affecting multiple economic sectors simultaneously.
經濟專家預測，若海峽對商業航運轉為禁止通行，將產生災難性後果。目前約74美元每桶的油價可能飆升至超過120美元，這代表超過六成的漲幅，將按比例影響全球汽油價格。這種升級將使美國平均汽油價格從目前的每加侖3.22美元上漲至超過5美元，而無數其他商品的運輸成本也會相應增加。全球會計師事務所安永概述了涉及「重大升級」的情境，由於嚴重的供應鏈中斷和通膨壓力同時影響多個經濟部門，可能引發全球經濟衰退。
International stakeholders face complex challenges balancing diplomatic solutions with economic security concerns. China, importing approximately five million barrels daily through the strait, alongside India and South Korea with their substantial dependencies, would experience severe supply disruptions. However, Iran itself faces significant risks from closure, as the action would impede their own oil exports while potentially alienating Middle Eastern neighbors who have remained neutral during recent conflicts. Maritime shipping companies like Maersk continue monitoring conditions closely while maintaining contingency plans, as electronic interference already affects satellite navigation systems throughout the region. The delicate balance between geopolitical tensions and economic stability remains precarious, with global markets closely watching developments.
國際利害關係人面臨著在外交解決方案與經濟安全考量之間取得平衡的複雜挑戰。中國每天通過海峽進口約500萬桶石油，加上印度和南韓的大量依賴，將經歷嚴重的供應中斷。然而，伊朗本身也面臨封鎖的重大風險，因為這項行動將阻礙其自身的石油出口，同時可能疏遠在最近衝突中保持中立的中東鄰國。像快桅航運這樣的海運公司持續密切監控情況，同時維持應急計劃，因為電子干擾已經影響整個地區的衛星導航系統。地緣政治緊張情勢與經濟穩定之間的微妙平衡仍然岌岌可危，全球市場正密切關注事態發展。
Keyword Drills 關鍵字
- Bottleneck [noun, a narrow section that restricts flow or movement]: Approximately twenty million barrels of oil pass through this geographic bottleneck daily, representing roughly twenty percent of global liquid petroleum consumption according to the Energy Information Administration.
- Escalation [noun, an increase in intensity or scope of conflict]: Recent escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict has intensified global concerns about potential disruptions to this crucial maritime corridor.
- Catastrophic [adjective, involving sudden great damage or suffering]: Economic experts predict catastrophic consequences should the strait become inaccessible to commercial shipping.
- Contingency [noun, a future event or circumstance that is possible but cannot be predicted]: Maritime shipping companies like Maersk continue monitoring conditions closely while maintaining contingency plans.
- Precarious [adjective, uncertain and dependent on chance]: The delicate balance between geopolitical tensions and economic stability remains precarious, with global markets closely watching developments.
Reference article:
1. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/23/business/strait-of-hormuz-iran-israel-explainer-intl-hnk
2. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/strait-hormuz-matter/story?id=123114172